Boeing Projects 4% Annual Growth in Air Cargo Traffic Through 2043

Boeing’s 2024 World Air Cargo Forecast (WACF) predicts steady, long-term growth for the air cargo industry, projecting a 4% annual increase in air cargo traffic through 2043. With the strong resurgence of the air cargo market, surpassing pre-pandemic levels, Boeing anticipates a significant rise in demand driven by factors such as the expansion of emerging markets and growth in global manufacturing and e-commerce. According to the forecast, the global air cargo fleet is expected to grow by two-thirds, from 2,340 freighters in 2023 to 3,900 by 2043.

The highest growth in air cargo traffic is expected in East and South Asia, where economies are rapidly expanding, and consumer demand is increasing. Boeing also predicts a near-tripling of the air cargo fleet in the Asia-Pacific region. Both Asia-Pacific and North America will account for over two-thirds of all freighter deliveries, with the Asia-Pacific region requiring the highest number, totaling 980 aircraft.

Additionally, the forecast predicts a shift in the freighter fleet composition. The majority of new deliveries will be in the form of more capable, fuel-efficient models, with nearly half of deliveries replacing retiring aircraft. Although older jets remain in service due to recent market needs, the transition toward more efficient and sustainable freighters will be crucial for the industry’s long-term growth.

India’s domestic air cargo market is one of the standout predictions, with the market expected to nearly quadruple due to the rapid expansion of express and e-commerce networks. As e-commerce continues to drive demand for quick delivery, express carriers are forecasted to serve approximately one-quarter of the total air cargo market, up from 18% today.

Boeing’s 2024 WACF also provides insights into the types of freighters that will dominate the market in the coming decades. The forecast expects a total of 2,845 freighter deliveries between 2024 and 2043, with 1,005 of these being new production aircraft and 1,840 being conversions. The majority of these deliveries will be standard-body, medium-body, and wide-body freighters.

The full forecast report, including further insights into global trends and predictions, is available at Boeing’s official website.